Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Prayers for Rain

Going into Game 5 of the World Series, there were two ways I thought it could end. I thought the Cards could win starts by Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia and take the thing in six games or that the Cardinals could lose the series in seven games. After Kyle Lohse's, well, awful Game 3 start, I didn't believe we could win another game with him starting. While the game ended up being a rout in our favor, a big key to that early was the blown Matt Holliday call at first base followed by a 2006 Tigers-esque Mike Napoli throwing error that allowed the Cardinals to score four runs and build a 5-0 lead. Lohse did all he could to let the Rangers back in the game, giving up two bombs in the next half inning, but luckily Holliday made a great play in left field, catching a fly ball and gunning down Napoli at home to preserve a 5-3 lead. And this time, Holliday didn't even need the benefit of a horrible call. Napoli was obviously out. That being said, Lohse didn't last much longer and the only reason his poor start wasn't too noticeable was because Albert Pujols went off the hook, tying three World Series records(three home runs, six RBIs, and five hits) and breaking two more (first player with four hits in four consecutive innings in the WS and most total bases at 14 in one WS game). 

With all that said, after today's rainout, it looks possible that the Cardinals could still get wins from Garcia and Carpenter, it could just be in Games 6 and 7 instead.of 5 and 6. We of course have to win Game 6 to get to Game 7, but I certainly like our chances much better of both. Garcia's allowed runs in just two innings this postseason out of 18 2/3 at home and just four runs total. So, unless Tony La Russa makes more bonehead intentional walk decisions (and that's entirely possible), I really like Garcia's chances to get a win on Thursday. And as for Carpenter, does anyone remember his last winner-take-all start that he made? I do, but it's a bit hazy as I had a few beers. That was Game 5 of this year's NLDS, when he out-dueled Roy Halladay. Or as it's known in my household, the infamous police noise complaint night. I yelled every couple of innings and we were watching the game on my porch, so yes, it might have been a little bit loud. It was also before 10 pm on a Friday night. In St. Louis, Missouri. I said it that night and I'll say it again. If you don't like playoff baseball, move to Chicago or Kansas City. Both towns are in the Midwest and rarely have to deal with playoff baseball. End tangent. Carpenter was masterful that night, and while he'd have to pitch Game 7 on Friday with short rest, is their anyone else on the roster that you would trust more? And while Mitch Moreland's bomb was surely gone anywhere, anytime on Monday, Adrian Beltre's solo shot to tie Game 5 was probably just a long fly ball in the colder temperatures expected of Busch Stadium on Friday.I'll take my chances. I choose you, Magi-Carp! 

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

A Statistically Significant Pair of Pumped Up Kicks

For me, sports, especially in the playoffs, are all about patterns and superstitions. I make note of stupid things like what I'm wearing, what I'm doing, and even where I am at the time of wins and losses. I wore the same shirt, without washing it, for five games, and we won the first four until a loss in Game 4 of the NLCS forced me to switch it out. My current shirt, the Matt Holliday number 15 shirt I got on clearance, (because who cares about the number on the back when it's five dollars) is currently on a two-game winning streak and will be on my back tomorrow when I head downtown for Game 1 of the World Series. I'll also be wearing hat number 2, my me shoes (Christmas gift from Natalie pictured here), and my gray shorts. I'm well aware that tomorrow's low is 41 degrees and that rain is also in the forecast. I don't care. Sacrifices must be made.

My liver perhaps understands that best of all. When I drink this postseason, the Cardinals are 7-1. When I don't, they're 0-3. It doesn't take a statistics professor to tell you that there is a significant difference between those percentages (.875>.000).  And it only takes a slightly eccentric baseball fan to tell you that you should ignore sample size and logic. After all, the Cardinals being in the playoffs, overcoming an 8.5 game deficit, the largest in National League history, defied logic too. I'll be playing the odds tomorrow at Paddy O's, because well, the Cards are 2-0 when I have a drink there this postseason. Also, I promise I'm not an alcoholic. I'm drinking a cherry coke right now and haven't had a sip of alcohol since Game 6 ended. I'm simply a baseball fanatic who will do just about anything to see his team win the World Series. Even if it seems stupid to you.

Monday, October 3, 2011

The Cardinals Keep Making Me Look Stupid, but I'm Okay With This

Every time I start to doubt the Cardinals, they do the unthinkable. First, they go 18-8 during September to make the playoffs (thanks Braves). Then, last night in Game 2 of the Division Series against the Phillies, they fell behind 4-0, going up against Cliff Lee, and they came back to win. Lee wasn't exactly Roy Halladay last night, as he was in out of trouble. He gave up a leadoff triple in the first inning and a leadoff double in the second inning and managed to get out of it unscathed both times.

At that point, it's starting to look like one of those nights and one of those series, too. But then, the Cardinals finally managed to string together some hits in the fourth inning and rallied to score three runs. They nearly tied it that inning, as Jon Jay made the final out at home. But after that, the Cardinals knew they were in the game. Even with Carpenter getting lit up early, they were still in the game. We then were witness to the bizarro baseball world. Carpenter was pitching like the Cardinals bullpen for much of the season and the bullpen started pitching like Carpenter. The combination of Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski (or as several of my friends have come to call him, Scrabble), Mitchell Boggs, Arthur Rhodes, and Jason Motte threw six scoreless innings, allowing just one hit, while striking out six and walking no one. Rhodes struck out Ryan Howard with the tying run at first. The guy should be signing up for AARP, not striking out the guy that hit the ball three miles the day before.  But this shit actually happened.

Now the Cardinals can come home and have a chance to close out the series in four games, without having go to back to Philadelphia. And if the Phillies don't want to throw Halladay on short rest, the Cards could also avoid facing him by closing out the series at home. I'll make this decree just like I've done over the past couple of months and will probably be proven wrong again, but the Cards won't win a Game 5 in Philly against Roy Halladay. That just doesn't make sense. After Lance Berkman's three-run bomb in the first inning of Game 1, that was pretty much all we got. Skip Schumaker got a leadoff single in the second, but after that, Halladay pulled a NASCAR and "shut her down." And while this may seem like my first NASCAR reference since I began this blog close to three years ago, it's really just my first Brian Regan reference. If anything, I'm making fun of NASCAR and how it's not a sport, but just a bunch of red necks turning left. I'm not saying that driving in circles at really high speeds isn't difficult, I'm just saying I don't find it entertaining and a machine shouldn't decide the outcome of something that is actually a sport. There, I said it! End tangent! But yes, Halladay retired 21 consecutive batters after Schumaker's single. He didn't even do that in his first start of the playoffs last year. And that was a no-hitter! So yes, I definitely don't like our chances in that scenario.

Let's just win the next two and not worry about that...

Also, just a word to the Rams' offensive line. Blocking is not optional. It's your job. Maybe, do it? And wide receivers, you should probably receive the ball every once in a while too. I heard an unofficial number today, which was that the Rams had 20 drops in Sunday's game. TWENTY! Bradford's completion percentage could've jumped from 47% to 93%. I don't expect them to catch all of those balls, but even most of them would make Bradford's numbers respectable and he deserves better. I just don't know that he'll get what he deserves this season.

Photo from http://www.batman-superman.com

Thursday, September 22, 2011

#FireTLR Campaign Reignites

Before I go on a rant about how awful today's loss to the Mets was, I figured I'd touch on something positive.The Cardinals resigned Lance Berkman today to a one-year deal. With bringing both he and Chris Carpenter back before they hit free agency, it means that when free agency does come, the Cardinals will be able to focus much more on their most important free agent: Albert Pujols. 

I must admit, bringing Berkman back does merit a few concerns. First, part of the deal is that he has full no-trade protection, meaning if the team were to tank next year, they'd be stuck with the remainder of his large salary. Secondly, he's already 34 so the odds of him repeating this season are pretty low, but I'd be more than happy for him to prove us wrong again. Third, if Berkman is going to play the outfield next year, he'll be a roadblock for Allen Craig getting in the lineup. Craig has showed fantastic power in his limited chances and it would be great to see what he could do with a full major league season. He even seems to have decent range in the outfield and in a season filled with defensive blunders, it would be nice to upgrade on that, even if it is a minor upgrade.

Now, as several of you may know, I got out of work quite early today and decided to attempt to get into the Cardinals game for free following a two hour rain delay. My plan succeeded as even though the gates weren't open, I managed to sneak past an usher and got inside during the bottom of the fourth. I used the smokers re-entry near first base, just for future reference, and then in Han Solo fashion, I blended in with the rest of the garbage and floated right into Busch Stadium. 

I arrived in time to see Pujols rip his 37th home run of the year and for the game's first eight innings, things were going swimmingly. Jake Westbrook made a quality start even with walking in a run, the redbirds earned us our 25 cent drinks for tomorrow by scoring six runs, and Corey Patterson was even batting 1.725, at least according to the scoreboard. Anyone who was sober (and there weren't many of us after a two hour rain delay) would clearly realize that this was 1. Impossible and 2. Even more impossible for Corey Patterson and got quite a laugh out of it. I tried to rationalize the existence of the number and thought maybe it could be his batting average (.239) added to both his on-base percentage (.271) and slugging percentage (.359) all added together, but then it still barely got over halfway there. At this point I just decided that it was complete gibberish and that those running the scoreboards may have let loose during the rain delay as well.

This then brings us to the ninth inning. The Cardinals entered the ninth with a 6-2 lead, having completely dominated the game. And although it's not a save situation, manager Tony La Russa decided to bring in his recent closer of choice, Jason Motte. Motte threw 24 pitches on Wednesday night and this would be his ninth appearance in 13 days (thanks to Mike Techner for pointing that one out). Motte walked the leadoff man, but then appeared to redeem this fact by getting a grounder hit right to Rafael Furcal at shortstop. Furcal went to start the double play, but never got a great grip on the ball and ended up not getting a single out on a play that clearly should have been two. Motte settled down, got a fly out to center by the next batter, but then walked the next two to bring home a run and bring up Jose Reyes before La Russa removed Motte from the game. La Russa then brought in lefty Mark Rzepczynski who ran into some bad luck, sawing off Reyes but allowing a hit just out of Ryan Theriot's reach nonetheless. Long story short, the Mets came back from four down to win by two and with the way the season's gone, even an optimist on happy pills should have seen it coming.

This kind of mismanaging of a bullpen from a "Hall of Fame" manager is unacceptable. It's the kind of crap that has had me wanting La Russa to retire or be fired for years. And I figured since he managed like he was bombed out of his mind today, a cheap shot like using his DUI mugshot was acceptable. The Cardinals have tons of losses that they can point to from this season as the reason that they did not make the playoffs if they indeed miss them. But with this one being in the last week of the season and probably the worst loss of them all, it certainly sticks out and could be pointed to as THE reason among many reasons. I'm really glad I didn't pay to see it. If anyone needs me, I'll be in the shower crying and holding myself, just like Tobias. And oh, I'll be wearing cutoffs.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Football observations for Week 2

First, let's backtrack and look at college for a second. Miami beat 17th ranked Ohio State 24-6 yesterday. While I was happy with the outcome, since Miami isn't going anywhere this season anyway, I'm sad that no one billed that game as the Cheaters Bowl 2011.

A quick look at my teams:
The Steelers should bounce back this week for four reasons. 1. The Seahawks suck. 2. The Steelers are at home. 3. The Steelers turned the ball over seven times last week and if they don't come out angrier than a Nazi on fire, there is something wrong with them. 4. The Seahawks are a west coast team and are playing at 1 pm ET. West coast teams typically do really poorly in that scenario, especially when they have to travel all the way across the country. (Thanks to Dan the Clark for pointing that last one out).

The Rams, unfortunately, are in trouble. Steven Jackson isn't playing (or at least he shouldn't) due to his pulled quad muscle. Sam Bradford didn't look sharp at all in the new offense last week and will be without his favorite target in Danny Amendola. And he's going to have to deal with a defensive line that's far superior to that of the Eagles, and the Philly D-line made Swiss cheese of the Rams'  O-line last week. The Rams' front five have to get better this week, or we could have a blowout loss to go with an 0-2 record. Defensively, the Rams will be without Ron Bartell (probably for the year) and some of their tackling looked like the Rams from the 1-15 season. Sure, Eli Manning isn't going to run circles around the Rams like Michael Vick, but I hope tackling drills were a part of practice this week.

Thoughts and Questions Around the NFL:
Parlay bet of the week. Look for the Redskins and Bills to both start 2-0. We'll name it the Professor Chanderbhan effect, after my DC native friend who recently moved to Buffalo.

When was the last time the Lions were a favorite over a team that made the playoffs the previous year? It was probably before the last ice age, but I expect this to hold up and am taking the Lions over the Chiefs.

If the Eagles are scheduled to play the Browns in Cleveland next year when the two teams meet, will PETA protest Vick going into the Dawg Pound? I'm taking the Eagles over the Falcons this week and the Colts over the Browns. The Colts looked bad last week, but they didn't lose a home game to the Bengals a la the Browns.

Friday, September 16, 2011

The King Has Returned (Ryan Means Little King) and So Have the Cardinals

I haven't written much this baseball season. I'm partially glad for this, as this season has been incredibly frustrating. Lance Berkman has returned close to his prime form, Kyle Lohse has a 13-8 record, and Yadier Molina is having a career offensive year including 13 bombs. And yet, the Cardinals sit 5.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead and 4.5 back of the Braves for the NL wild card spot. And sure, lots of things have gone wrong too. Adam Wainwright hasn't thrown a pitch for the team this year due to needing Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have blown 23 saves. If games were only eight innings long, they'd be running away with the NL Central. Even with just half of those games back, they'd have a sizable lead over the Brewers and we wouldn't even be watching the Braves and Mets on the scoreboard. Oh, and hitting into 160 double plays and counting hasn't exactly helped matters either.

As those of you that read me regularly (when I post regularly) know, I was ready for Tony La Russa to call it a career after last season. Sticking with Ryan Franklin as the closer at the beginning of the year was a terrible maneuver that cost the team at least the difference in the wild card race, but probably more as it caused the team to sputter terribly out of the gate. A 2-4 home stand to begin the year against the Padres and Pirates, two teams that are currently a combined 38 games under .500, is not the way to start a season.

Of course, La Russa's biggest mistake of this season was probably believing that Ryan Theriot would be adequate defensively at shortstop. The Cubs and Dodgers were aware of this, but somehow the manager that ranks third all time in wins wasn't? No, I'm sure he knew that Theriot was subpar at defense. What he didn't know was that his offense that started out hot would greatly diminish and could no longer overshadow how poor his defense has been. It's also worth noting that the defensive specialist that we dumped for some low level prospect, Brendan Ryan, is only batting 24 points lower than Theriot, with two more homers and three fewer RBI. Ryan's also done this in the lower part of the Mariners' lineup while Theriot has been in one of, if not the best, offensive lineup in the majors. And while I love the Mariners (they're my favorite AL team), I'm not blind to reality like La Russa. I know they suck and I know their lineup sucks. But their defense at shortstop does not. And the redbirds took far too long to address this problem.

Rafael Furcal has done a great job since coming over from the Dodgers. He made an over the shoulder catch against the Brewers to send a game in Milwaukee to extra innings that to my naked eye, appeared to defy physics. The Cards went on to win that game. He's also shown that he still has some pop, hitting six bombs in 41 games with the Cards, compared to just one in his first 37 games with the Dodgers.

Retaining Furcal would be a huge plus for the team going into next season and should be more of a priority than resigning Berkman. We can always throw Allen Craig in right field and probably get 25 bombs with a little below average defense. We can't throw anyone on the roster or in the minors over at short and get defense that will protect the pitching staff other than Furcal. I'd be for a one year deal if he's willing, but he might be happier with a two-year deal. The fact of the matter is, that shortstop is probably the most important position on the baseball field and the Cards haven't had a plus player there since Edgar Renteria left after the 2004 season. I know everyone loves David Eckstein (myself included), but he was below average on defense due to his range and while he was a solid lead off man, getting some power from a shortstop that can't play defense at a high level certainly helps the team. Furcal can hit for average, power, play defense, and even steal  a few bases. Aside from retaining Albert Pujols and getting Wainwright back, keeping Furcal is the key to a successful 2012 season.

As for the 2011 season, it's still not over. The Braves mild collapse and a recent hot streak by the Cards has made things interesting. Due to an angry tweet after yet another game that the Cards blew late, I have agreed to run a marathon next year if they can make the playoffs. I'm totally up for it still, but they have a lot of work to do if they want to get me running. They have a four game set with the Phillies, which they're currently leading the opener of 2-1 in the eighth, followed by three at home with the Mets, three at home with the Cubs, and three in Houston. Realistically, they can afford one more loss, two tops. Aside from the Phillies, those are three extremely beatable teams. And with the Phillies being so far ahead of the Brewers and Diamondbacks for home field throughout the playoffs, they're not even the team they normally are as they're resting some starters. Ryan Howard didn't start tonight, for instance. I've done some stupid things in my day for my fandom, including saying I'd dye my Chris Carpenter playoff soul patch red if we made the World Series in 2006, matching the facial hair of Scott Spiezio. Well, they did and I did. I'd love an excuse to do something else stupid, like run run 26+ miles at one time. I hope the Cardinals make me do it. Oh, and if they do, Ashley Rupkey, you can feel free to tell me you told me so. And so can all the pro-Colby Rasmus trade people. That would be some magically delicious humble pie.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Yes, Well, You're Still Little Bitches

The Cincinnati Reds showed their true colors on Sunday, but only after the game had ended. After nearly blowing a seven run lead in the ninth inning (five runs in with the go ahead run at the plate), they began to gesture toward the Cardinals' dugout. Even after winning the division last year, the Reds are still showing the youth and lack of experience that got them no-hit and eventually swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies. Even after sweeping the redbirds, the division lead for Cincinnati is just a game and a half. They were acting like they had clinched the division and put the Cardinals out of the wild card hunt as well on Sunday, rather than having just won a series in mid-May. With the way the Cards' offense has come alive and the consistency that their rotation has shown, the Cardinals should be in the thick of things in September, especially if they can get their bullpen in order. The bullpen blew another ninth inning lead in Friday's game, not to mention a three run lead over the last three innings. In the three game series at the Great American Ballpark, the St. Louis bullpen allowed eight runs in just eight innings of work. An ERA of 9.00 from your bullpen isn't going to cut it, especially on the road against your biggest competition for the division.

Photo from NBC Sports