Cole Hamels IS That Good

I was getting tired of reading about how Cole Hamels is going to get a ridiculous contract from either the Phillies or in free agency, so I decided to write a post about him not being that good and not being worth that kind of money.

Well, it turns out that Hamels has been extremely consistent since he entered the league in 2006. Since his rookie year, his ERA has only finished over 4.00 one time, and that was in 2009, the year after the Phillies won the World Series. He threw what is still a career high of 227.1 innings in 2008 and threw an additional 35.0 innings during that postseason, bringing the overall total to 262.1 innings. Most pitchers struggle after putting up a bunch of extra innings. Just look at Chris Carpenter. After the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series, Carp missed nearly two full seasons, pitching in just five games over those two years. Now it's 2012 and Carpenter won't pitch at all this season after the Cards won the 2011 World Series. Hamels had took a step back in 2009, suffering career highs in ERA, WHIP, and his only sub-.500 season, but he still was decent enough to help the team back to another World Series.

I'm not sure if Hamels is worth $20+ million a year, but the Phillies gave Cliff Lee $120 million over five year and Hamels has a career ERA .30 lower than that of Lee. At least if he does get that much, he can afford a better hair cut. If Philadelphia can't retain Hamels, he would be a prized asset that could bolster any team looking to make the playoffs this season. One major rule change could deter some clubs, though. Players acquired in mid-season trades will no longer result in draft pick compensation if they sign elsewhere. With this being the first year of this rule, it's difficult to tell how it will affect prospective trades, but teams might not want to give up as many prized prospects with the possibility of losing both those young players and the free agent, without a chance to replace either. If the Phillies re-sign Hamels, they're looking at close to $70 million on three pitchers between him, Lee, and Roy Halladay for next season. Add on Ryan Howard's $25 million, and that's $95 million on four players. The Phillies might be better off trading Hamels for the right package so if nothing else, they can keep some balance on their roster keep it competitive.

The Second Half

After an amazing April, the Cardinals have fallen a bit on hard times. The biggest reasons for this have been injuries and a sub-par performance from the bullpen. Allen Craig has been on the DL twice and has practically averaged an RBI per game when he's been able to play. Lance Berkman only has had 42 at-bats so far this season, but is on the verge of coming back. The biggest blow of all, however, is probably the fact that Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched and we found out a little over a week ago that he won't pitch again until 2013 at the earliest.

As for the bullpen, it simply hasn't been reliable. Whether it's been Marc Rzepczynski walking too many batters, Fernando Salas allowing a hit parade, or Jason Motte thinking he has God's gift to fastballs, the Cardinals have allowed far too many leads to be squandered this season. The Cardinals have blown 14 saves a team so far this season. Only the Colorado Rockies, who are having a historically bad pitching season, have blown more saves. By comparison, the division leading Pirates have only blown five. If the Cardinals had converted just half of those blown saves, they would have the best record in Major League Baseball. This isn't that unreasonable  as they still wouldn't be perfect or even the best in the league at holding leads if they had managed this task. An improvement in this category is a must if the Cards are to make the playoffs. They blew way too many save chances in 2010 as well, and that cost them a playoff spot that year. There is no reason to think that this season would be any different.

General manager John Mozeliak made a trade last July to completely rework the bullpen. It took about a month for it to fall into place, but once it did, the Cardinals went on a tear, erasing the biggest September deficit in National League history to make the playoffs and eventually win the World Series. I don't think he needs to completely rework the bullpen this year. I think he may just need to add one pitcher and the bullpen can fall into place. The offense isn't a problem and hasn't been all season. There's no reason to believe that the offense will fade in the second half, especially with the addition of Berkman back into the lineup.

This offensive depth could be a way for the Cards to find that pitcher they need, as with the extra wild card spot, very few teams are completely out of the race. This could cause more trades where both teams are trying to improve for this season rather than the more conventional sell now/buy for the future type of trade. The Padres' Huston Street has been a name that has come up with the Cardinals being mentioned. This is an experienced closer who could thrive in either that role or be a setup man for Motte in the way that Francisco Rodriguez was for the Brewers when he was acquired last summer. The right side might be where the Cardinals need a bullpen arm most, as rookie call up Barret Browning has stabilized the left side for the time being. I will admit that Browning has a very small sample size of 4.1 innings, but if his success continues (he's yet to allow a base runner), it could allow Mozeliak to focus on a righty for the bullpen.

There has also been talk of the Cardinals adding to the rotation and possibly trading for Zach Greinke. I feel that the Cards would have to give up far too much to bring him in, especially within the division. Milwaukee gave up a lot to get him, so they're not going to ship him off for a group of second rate prospects.  It might take a player like Craig and a decent prospect and I'm not sure I'd like to do something quite that drastic, especially with the way that Joe Kelly has pitched since coming up and Jaime Garcia returning from the DL in the near future.

The other part of the equation, with the Cardinals sitting in third place, 2.5 games behind the Pirates and 1.5 behind the second place Reds, is how will those clubs respond in the second half? The Pirates are currently playing out of their minds. Andrew McCutcheon is the only position player that is an A talent. Everyone else is pretty average. They've been hitting great for the past month, but isn't it kind of likely to expect that if they don't go back to how they were in April and May, that they'll at least fall somewhere in the middle? Also, the Pirates could go out and get a bat to help them make a playoff push, but when was the last time this team actually spent money? I'm confident that the Pirates could help themselves if they wanted to, I'm just not sure that ownership cares enough to do anything.

That brings me to their pitching. Starter James McDonald has pitched like the ace of the staff so far this season, posting a 9-3 record and an impressive 2.37 ERA. He's also already thrown 110 innings. He only threw 171 innings in 31 starts as a rookie last season, so it's very possible that he could hit a wall in late August or September when the Bucs will still need to be piling up wins to fend off the far more experienced Cardinals and Reds. A.J. Burnett also has an impressive record of 10-2, but his ERA of 3.68 is fairly mediocre. Erik Bedard and Kevin Correia have been pretty average this season as well, and their fifth spot in the rotation has involved three different starters, which isn't the consistency that you'd hope for to make a playoff push. I feel like the Pirates are still at least one more year away from truly contending for a playoff spot.

As for the Reds, they've won the division before, have a GM in place who can pull off a big deal with some solid prospects to trade if that's the direction they'd like to go. The big rumor for a while was that they were going to bring home an Ohio guy in Kevin Youkilis to play third, but now that he's been dealt to the White Sox, that's obviously not going to happen. There's really not much on the market anymore in terms of impact hitters at third base, so the Reds will likely have to look for an outfielder. They could use a little more pop, but also a leadoff hitter, so there will be several options. They've also been linked to looking at Greinke, who could help round out their already solid rotation.

If the Cardinals can get their bullpen settled like they did last year, they should be in great shape to make another run. The Pirates are young, the Reds have their problems, and the redbirds are starting to get healthy. They also have more motivation to make it to the World Series now, as they know they'll have home field advantage again if they make it. Thank you, Justin Verlander!